Lambda Chi CapitalThis is the page that pairs with the cycle dashboard. The dashboard groups indicators by the independent input each is built on. This page explains them one at a time.
The point worth carrying through all of it: a dashboard showing twelve green ticks is showing two or three opinions. Most of these indicators are arithmetic on the same price series. Displaying them all is useful. Counting them all as independent confirmation is how a dashboard talks itself into certainty it has not earned.
Built on price and time
These five share one input: the price history. They agree with each other constantly, and that agreement means much less than it appears to.
200-week moving average
What it measures. The average weekly closing price over roughly four years — one full issuance cycle by construction.
Why people watch it. Bitcoin has historically spent little time below it, and those periods coincided with major lows. It is the most-cited long-horizon line in the asset.
What it does not tell you. Anything forward-looking. A moving average is a description of the past with a lag built in — by definition it turns after the market does, not before.
Duplicates: the 50-week MA. Same input, shorter window. Showing both adds a line and no information.
Mayer Multiple
What it measures. Price divided by the 200-day moving average.
Why it is useful. It converts “far above trend” into a single ratio with a long distribution behind it, which makes historical comparison easy.
What it does not tell you. Why. It is a distance measurement, and a market can stay far from its average for a long time.
Duplicates: it is the 200-day MA expressed as a ratio. Same input, different presentation.
Pi Cycle Top
What it measures. When the 111-day moving average crosses above twice the 350-day moving average.
Why it is famous. It has landed near several cycle tops within a few days, which is genuinely striking.
What to hold in mind. It has fired a handful of times in Bitcoin’s entire history. A signal with that few observations cannot be validated statistically, however good the hit rate looks. The specific parameters — 111, 350, the factor of two — were selected because they fit the tops that already existed.
Duplicates: two moving averages. Same input again.
Rainbow chart
What it measures. A logarithmic regression band fitted to the price history, coloured by distance from the fitted line.
Why it is popular. It is legible at a glance and gives a sense of scale across orders of magnitude.
The problem to be honest about. The regression is refitted as new data arrives, so the bands move. A chart whose bands adjust to accommodate the price cannot be falsified by the price. It is a visualisation, not a model.
Built on on-chain cost basis
Genuinely different information: what holders actually paid, rather than what the chart did.
MVRV
What it measures. Market value divided by realised value — current price against the average price at which the existing supply last moved.
Why it is the strongest single on-chain measure. It answers a real question: is the average holder up or down, and by how much. That is not derivable from price alone, and it comes from the chain rather than from an exchange.
What it does not tell you. Who is up. An aggregate hides the distribution completely.
MVRV Z-Score
The same measure expressed in standard deviations from its mean. Useful for comparison across cycles; the same input.
NUPL — net unrealised profit/loss
Struck through on the dashboard on purpose. NUPL is exactly 1 − 1/MVRV. It
is not a second opinion, it is the same number rearranged. Showing both and
treating them as two confirming signals is double-counting with extra steps.
Built on issuance
Puell Multiple
What it measures. Daily miner revenue in dollars, divided by its own 365-day average.
Why it is half-weighted on the dashboard. The issuance schedule is deterministic — the coin count is known years ahead — so the numerator is mostly price again, wearing a mining hat. It carries some independent information about miner economics, but less than its own presentation suggests.
Built on macro liquidity
Global M2 and CPI
What they measure. Broad money supply, and consumer inflation.
The real relationship. Bitcoin has behaved like a long-duration risk asset, and long-duration risk assets are sensitive to liquidity conditions. That link is real over long horizons.
The claim to be careful with. The widely repeated “M2 leads Bitcoin by 10–12 weeks” is a fitted lag, and the fit is unstable across eras. A lag that is re-estimated whenever it stops working is a description, not a prediction.
Half-weighted for that reason: real relationship, unreliable timing.
Built on attention
Google search interest
The one genuinely independent input on the board.
What it measures. How many people are searching for Bitcoin, relative to that term’s own history.
Why it earns full weight when nothing else new does. Every other indicator here re-presents price, cost basis, or macro. Search interest measures retail attention directly — and attention is what actually turns at tops. When newcomers stop arriving, the marginal buyer stops arriving.
What it does not tell you. Intent. Searching is not buying, and the two have diverged.
Shown, never scored
The four-year cycle
The claim. Bitcoin moves in roughly four-year waves anchored to the halving.
Why we display it and do not score it. There have been four halvings. Four observations cannot establish a cycle, and each has occurred in a completely different macro environment and market structure — no ETFs, then ETFs; no institutions, then institutions.
The four-year cycle is the most load-bearing belief in crypto and the least evidenced. When someone claims it has ended, that is a REGIME claim in the Ledger, and it has no published test — so it resolves as unresolvable and we say so. Inventing a test after we know the answer is the exact failure our methodology exists to prevent.
Hash rate
Measures network security and miner commitment. Follows price more than it leads it — miners expand when it is profitable.
Manufacturing and reshoring indices
Real, independent macro data with no established relationship to Bitcoin price. We display them because people ask. Scoring them would mean inventing a correlation, which is precisely the thing this publication exists to expose.
How to read the whole board at once
Six independent inputs, not twenty indicators: price and time, on-chain cost basis, issuance, macro liquidity, attention, and a context layer that is never scored.
When ten indicators agree, ask how many distinct inputs they represent. Usually the answer is two or three — and knowing that is more valuable than the ten readings.
Every indicator on this site is reported as currently positive or negative against its own history. Never “buy”. Never “sell”. Never “a good time to.” That is a factual statement about where a public number sits in its own distribution. What you conclude from it is yours.