The problem

Every day, a handful of channels tell millions of people what is about to happen to the price of things. Those calls are made confidently, in public, at enormous scale — and then they evaporate. Nobody keeps the tape. A creator who was badly wrong in March is back in April with the same authority, because being wrong leaves no trace.

The asymmetry is the whole business model of the genre. Confident predictions get attention; incorrect predictions cost nothing. We are trying to make one of those two things stop being true.

What we actually do

We run a fixed roster of channels through an extraction pipeline every day. It pulls out claims that can, in principle, be checked: a named asset, a direction or a price, and a horizon. Each row keeps the creator's exact words and a link to the second of the video where they said it.

Then we wait. When the horizon closes, the claim is scored against the rules published in the methodology, and the verdict shows its arithmetic.

Currently on the record

• Aaron Arnold
• Across The Rubicon
• Austin Arnold
• Coin Bureau
• Kyle Chasse
• Mark Moss
• No BS Crypto
• Simply Bitcoin
• The House Of Crypto
• Thinking Crypto
• VirtualBacon

Inclusion is not an accusation and exclusion is not an endorsement. The roster is chosen for prediction density and audience size. It is not a survey of the space, and we say so.

The one rule that makes it work

The methodology is published before it is applied and is never applied retroactively. A claim logged under version 1.2 of the rulebook is scored under version 1.2 forever. Changes are forward-only, dated, and listed in a changelog anyone can read.

Without that property this would be an opinion with a number attached. A rulebook that can be adjusted once the outcomes are known can prove absolutely anything, including that we were right all along.

We are a publisher, not an adviser

Lambda Chi Capital does not manage money, does not accept client funds, and makes no market predictions of its own. We will not answer questions about what you should do with your portfolio — not as a formality, but because the moment we make our own calls we lose the standing to grade anyone else's.

Everything here is commentary on publicly broadcast statements, of general application, with sources linked so any reader can check our work.

Being wrong is not the same as being dishonest

Markets are extremely hard to predict and most confident forecasts about them are wrong. A low score in the Ledger means a creator's checkable calls did not beat the benchmark. It does not mean they lied, and we will not present it that way.

We also score what a channel broadcasts, not only what its host personally asserts — the same standard a weather station is held to for the forecast it aired. Each row records whether the host endorsed the claim or aired it without comment, so the distinction stays visible.

Corrections

Errors get fixed visibly. A corrected row keeps its claim id and records what changed and when. We do not quietly edit history: a project about other people's receipts has to keep its own.

Found a mistake? The raw data is downloadable, so you can check any verdict yourself — which is the point.